Bitcoin reaching USD100,000 before year-end carries an implied probability of approximately 29% on Polymarket and 30% on Kalshi, according to market readings reviewed on 14 October. WazirX’s Q4 outlook examines what could change those expectations as monetary tightening weighs against demand through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Polymarket assigns a 65% probability to Bitcoin reaching USD90,000 before year-end. The odds fall to 44% for USD95,000 and 29% for USD100,000. These contracts concern Bitcoin touching the specified price before the deadline. They do not predict its closing price on 31 December.
The gap gives traders a useful starting point. A recovery towards USD90,000 has majority backing on that market. A move into six figures would require a stronger advance than participants currently consider likely.
“Bitcoin at USD100,000 remains possible, but traders putting money behind that outcome give it roughly a three-in-ten chance,” said Rajagopal Menon, Vice President, WazirX. “We would watch whether ETF inflows persist as Bitcoin rises and whether spot buying strengthens near resistance. Continued demand at higher prices would give us more confidence in the rally.”
Traders see scope for a recovery, but a six-figure Bitcoin price remains a minority expectation heading into the final months of 2026
Do prediction markets deserve attention
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow participants to buy contracts tied to specific outcomes. Winning contracts pay out according to their terms. Participants risk their own capital, giving them a financial incentive to assess new information and revise their positions.
These markets attracted widespread attention during the 2024 US presidential election. On 4 November, Reuters reported that Polymarket assigned Donald Trump approximately a 57% chance of winning, while conventional polling averages showed an exceptionally close contest. Kalshi narrowly favoured Trump at 51%. He subsequently won the election.
Earlier that year, Polymarket had put the probability of Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race at approximately 80% on 18 July. Biden announced his withdrawal three days later.
Those outcomes helped establish prediction markets as another source of information for investors. Their prices remain sensitive to liquidity and large positions. Polls and prediction markets also measure different things: voting intentions in one case and the probability of an outcome in the other.
Expectations have already weakened
Kalshi’s own report on 6 October placed Bitcoin’s probability of reaching USD100,000 this year at 40%. The market reading reviewed on 14 October was approximately 30%.
That ten percentage point decline shows how quickly expectations can change within a supposedly favourable seasonal window.
Bitcoin’s year-end record also gives traders reason to examine the conditions behind each rally. Strong fourth-quarter gains in 2023 and 2024 were followed by a sharp correction in 2025. CoinGecko recorded a 23.7% decline in total cryptocurrency market capitalization during Q4 2025.
What could improve the odds?
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75–4%. Further tightening would make the setting more difficult for Bitcoin, particularly if Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen. In 2026, US equities have shown signs of consolidation after their mid-year rally, with the Dow Jones trading near 51,670, while the VIX around 15 suggests relatively contained equity-market volatility.
ETF demand could help absorb selling pressure. Its persistence will matter as much as individual daily inflows. Several weeks of net buying, alongside stronger spot-market activity, would provide better evidence that investors are willing to increase exposure. Institutional ETF flows have shown a noticeable shift entering Q4 2026. CoinGlass data indicates that September witnessed approximately USD3.3 billion in net crypto ETF inflows, supported by several strong institutional buying sessions. However, early October has seen a reversal, with approximately USD900 million in net outflows through October 12.
Derivatives data can help assess the strength of a price move. A rally accompanied by rapidly rising leverage can become vulnerable to forced selling. Continued spot purchases would provide firmer support.
For Indian traders, USD/INR movements also affect rupee-denominated returns. Bitcoin’s international price and its domestic value can move by different amounts.
WazirX will track whether the probability of USD100,000 rises alongside sustained buying. If Bitcoin advances while those odds remain subdued, traders should examine how much conviction sits behind the move.
