The recent Lok Sabha elections in Kerala have not only reshaped the state’s political landscape but also highlighted the significant rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Despite securing victory in only one seat, the NDA’s remarkable growth in vote share has caught the attention of political analysts and voters alike.
In a historic moment for the BJP, Suresh Gopi emerged victorious in the Thrissur constituency, marking the party’s first Lok Sabha win in the southern state. While the UDF maintained its dominance by securing 18 out of 20 seats, the NDA’s surge was undeniable.
The NDA’s vote share surged from 15.64% in 2019 to an impressive 19.23% in 2024, showcasing a steady ascent in popularity. This growth was significant, considering the BJP contested 16 seats, with its ally BDJS contesting four. The BJP’s individual vote share also saw a substantial increase from 13% to 16.68% during this period.
In contrast, both the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF witnessed declines in their vote shares. While the LDF’s vote share decreased from 36.29% to 33.36%, the UDF’s popular vote share dropped from 47.48% to 45.21% in 2024. Notably, the UDF faced setbacks in constituencies like Thrissur, where it was pushed to third position, losing a significant portion of its vote share.
Analysts attribute the UDF’s success to anti-incumbency sentiments against both the Pinarayi Vijayan government at the state level and the Modi government at the national level. Additionally, there were signs of minority consolidation in favor of the UDF, with Muslims and Christians predominantly supporting the coalition.
The BJP’s growth was further accentuated by its performance in assembly segments, where it secured leads in 11 constituencies compared to just one in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. These gains were concentrated in “A-class” seats within Thrissur, Attingal, and Thiruvananthapuram constituencies, traditionally held by the LDF.
Of particular note is the BJP’s strong showing in assembly segments currently held by LDF ministers, indicating a significant shift in voter allegiance. This time, the LDF was able to gain first position only in 19 assembly segments, signaling a decline in its stronghold.
Despite not winning, the BJP significantly improved its performance in key constituencies such as Thiruvananthapuram and Attingal, narrowing the margin of victory for UDF candidates. The party’s increased vote share in constituencies like Alappuzha, Palakkad, and Alathur underscores its growing influence, especially among the OBC Hindu Ezhava community, traditionally aligned with the CPI(M).
Overall, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala reflect dynamic political shifts, with the BJP-led NDA emerging as a formidable force challenging the traditional dominance of the UDF and LDF coalitions. As the state gears up for future elections, the evolving political landscape promises continued intrigue and competition.
