Shares of Asian Paints are trading relatively flat ahead of the announcement of its Q4 and full-year financial results for FY25. As of the latest session, the stock was up 0.31% at ₹2,339.95 on the BSE. Approximately 0.24 lakh shares changed hands, translating to a turnover of ₹5.55 crore. The company’s market capitalization currently stands at ₹2.24 lakh crore.
Brokerage Expectations for Q4FY25
According to Kotak Equities, Asian Paints is expected to report sales of ₹8,709.1 crore for the March quarter, slightly down from ₹8,730.8 crore reported in Q4FY24. The firm projects EBITDA to decline by 8.3% to ₹1,550.9 crore, compared to ₹1,691.4 crore in the same quarter last year. Kotak also anticipates a 14.8% drop in profit after tax (PAT) to ₹1,070.3 crore from ₹1,256.7 crore.
The brokerage expects a modest sequential improvement in the standalone domestic decorative paints segment, with year-on-year value growth down 1% and volume growth rising by 5–6%, better than the -7.5% and 1.6% figures, respectively, reported in Q3FY25.
Kotak estimates that gross margin will come in at 43%, a decline of 65 basis points year-on-year and 60 basis points quarter-on-quarter. This is expected to be partially supported by a favorable raw material cost environment but offset by weak product mix and higher trade spends. The EBITDA margin is likely to shrink by 140 basis points year-on-year to 17.8%, due to negative operating leverage and increased operational expenses amid rising competition.
Other Broker Estimates
Systematix Institutional Equities predicts revenue for Q4FY25 to be around ₹8,606 crore, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year decline. The firm projects PAT at ₹1,124 crore and EBITDA at ₹1,635.1 crore—down 3.3% compared to the year-ago period.
Centrum Broking forecasts a 2.5% drop in revenue to ₹8,512.5 crore, while PAT is expected to decline by 16% to ₹1,073.5 crore. EBITDA is likely to fall 6.7% to ₹1,578.1 crore compared to ₹1,691.4 crore in Q4FY24.
Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, Asian Paints is trading below its 5-day to 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41.2, placing the stock in the oversold zone. Over the past six months, the stock has declined by 15.5%, while maintaining a one-year beta of 0.5, suggesting relatively low volatility.
Investor Focus Areas
Key themes to watch in the earnings call include commentary on demand revival, volume growth trends, pricing strategy, and how the company plans to tackle increased competitive pressure in the paint industry.
